Houston Real Estate Update: Is This Your Last Chance to Secure a Home Before the Holiday Rush?
As the crisp fall air rolls into the Greater Houston area, a surprising shift is shaking up the typical real estate calendar. Nationally, a slight dip in interest rates earlier this fall gave the housing market an unexpected "last hurrah" before the traditional winter slow-down. But for homeowners and Houston first-time home buyers in Texas, the shift is even more pronounced, with our market firmly leaning into the buyer’s court.
Could this pre-holiday season be the perfect moment to lock in a deal while competition cools down?
Across the country, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is hovering around 6.38% (as of early October 2025), a rate high enough to keep many sideline shoppers cautious. However, this cautious approach has created a window of opportunity right here in the Lone Star State. While the national median home price sits near $364,891, the median price for a single-family home in the Greater Houston area recently dipped to approximately $327,000 in September 2025, a 2.1% decline year-over-year.
Crucially, major market indicators confirm that the Texas real estate market is moving into buyers' favor, and Houston is leading the charge.
Why it Matters
For Houston homeowners considering selling and potential buyers, this moment marks a significant shift from the frenzy of years past. We are officially in a more balanced—and in many Houston areas, a buyer's market—meaning you have more leverage and less pressure.
Time is on Your Side: The median days a single-family home spends on the market in the Greater Houston area has risen to 55 days as of September 2025. This is far longer than the national average and gives buyers the chance to conduct thorough inspections and negotiate without the pressure of a 24-hour deadline.
Negotiation Power is Up: Nationally, less than 27% of homes are selling above list price. Locally in Houston, the average list-to-sale price ratio is around 93.0%, indicating that homes are selling, on average, for 7% below the final list price. If you’re buying, come prepared to negotiate pricing and concessions, especially for homes that have been sitting a while.
Inventory Abounds: Active listings across Greater Houston were up nearly 28.5% year-over-year in September, pushing our months of inventory up to a 5.2-months supply. This surge in choice is a huge win for buyers looking for the perfect fit in areas from Katy to The Woodlands.
Price Drops are Common: Almost 30% of listings in Houston recently saw a price reduction. This suggests that sellers who priced too high earlier in the year are making necessary adjustments, creating fresh opportunities for the savvy buyer.
What is next
The market momentum tends to slow further as Thanksgiving and the December holidays arrive. Whether you are selling your Houston home fast in a cooling market or seeking a deal, acting now allows you to avoid competing with the "Spring Rush" buyers of 2026.
Here are your actionable steps:
Buyers: Get Serious About Strategy
Track Affordability: Utilize tools to monitor how even minor fluctuations in the national current Houston mortgage rate impact your monthly payment. A small drop could unlock a major price bracket.
Focus on Suburbs: Look to outer Houston area real estate inventory in growing suburbs, where new home builders are still focusing on the affordable $300,000 to $350,000 range.
Seek Concessions: Don't just negotiate the price. Ask sellers for contributions toward closing costs or for a rate buydown to lower your initial Texas mortgage rate.
Sellers: Price it Right, Right Now
Price Strategically: With the median Days on Market rising, overpricing will guarantee your home lingers. Price competitively from day one to capture the remaining, serious buyer pool before the year ends.
Focus on Move-In Ready: Buyers are patient. Ensure your home is spotless and professionally staged. In this market, move-in-ready homes are the ones that still spark competition.